Barack Obama will win the New Hampshire Democratic primary and John McCain will win for the GOP. John Edwards will come in second for the Democrats, with Hillary Clinton getting third place as she did in Iowa.
The big surprise will be on the GOP side — Mike Huckabee, NOT Mitt Romney, will come in second; Romney will be third.
I make my predictions based on a sound political principle: I just “feel right” about those finishes. Now anyone who’s a student of presidential politics in America over the long haul cannot refute research and predictions like that. The entire history of the presidency teaches us some simple truths about America: We think we like “nice guys,” so nice guy politicians always do well. In reality, the leaders we tout later prove to be those who were tough and made tough decisions.
(Toughness in presidents is rarely admired during their presidency; they generally are lauded for it later. Witness Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan.)
Will Obama make a good president? As Clinton keeps saying, she’s far more experienced than he. But, of course, experience is meaningless when it comes to presidents — they have entire staffs for that, and they really don’t do much to change life/politics in America anyway, they only SEEM to make change.
Will Huckabee “out-nice-guy” McCain and Romney? Of course he will. He’s been spreading that charming, smiley, “Gomer Pyle” face around New Hampshire and winning over just plain folks. The latest polls I’ve heard of have McCain in the lead, Romney second, and Huckabee a fairly distant third.
But whereas Huckabee smiles and looks charming, Romney smiles and looks forced. Too much Richard Nixon in Romney’s “charm.” Just wait and see.
Besides, as I’ve said elsewhere, I can always totally reverse my predictions in a blink like most media prognosticators. Just hope I don’t suffer emotional whiplash if that time comes.
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